22 July 2013:
A research project from Rohrbeck & Schwarz (2013) investigated the value creation of strategic foresight activities in large organisations. The sample included 77 large multinational organisations with annual revenues of EUR 100 million to 1 billion (7 firms), EUR 1 to 10 billion (37 firms) and over EUR 10 billion (33 firms). Based on their financial performance, organisations were categorised in low, medium and top performing firms.
The research shows that it is possible to capture value through 1) an enhanced capacity to perceive change; 2) an enhanced capacity to interpret and respond to change; 3) influencing other actors; and 4) an enhanced capacity for organizational learning.
42% of top performing firms (vs. 21-23% of medium and 6-25% of low performing firms) state that foresight:
– contributes to a reduction of uncertainty (e.g. through identification of disruptions);
– supports the identification of opportunities and threats for their product and technology portfolios; and
– is a tool to foster conversation about the overall strategy of the company.
Rohrbeck, René & Schwarz, Jan Oliver 2013, “The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, In Press/Corrected Proof.
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